Pretty horrible deal ultimately. Very disappointing that they raised money so recently at 37p/share and then agreed to a deal offering significantly less value. Well, on to the next one!
Actually you were bang on, the 150mUSD is split into 65mUSD for the "License agreement" (corresponding to the patents that were being litigated) and 85mUSD for "Sale agreement" (corresponding to other patents that are being sold but were not in scope)
So arguably the "real" settlement number here is 65mUSD.
Thinking the settlement is a one time $50-75M USD payment. Anything more and Samsung would likely roll the dice in court and then at the CAFC. Winning the IPRs was very helpful for Nanoco and they have world class legal representation with Mintz, Caldwell Cassady & Curry and Johnny Ward.
Of course, my point is that your 50-75mUSD translates into a 6-10p share price, at those levels you'd think the company would rather ""roll the dice" as you put it.
Especially when they raised money at 37p/share six months ago, and their stock options are struck at 50p+
You could very well be right. Just knowing Samsung and watching their deal flow, there are numbers they will settle for and there are numbers they will litigate through all appeals for. Winning the IPRs and Nanoco's elite level litigation counsel could have some upside to my estimates. Samsung paid out at least 4 settlements/license to close the year that I know of. I think I am going to be pretty close and hope that I am wrong. Best of luck!
Thanks. Mega disappointing not to make any money on an actual settlement being arrived at back end of Jan 2023. Added a lot on Friday as well. Going to hold until we know more, hopefully some positive updates on future licensing of the IP or plans for what to do with the settlement money that at least bring this back into the 50s/60s than where it currently sits
AssetCo also not moved which was another great looking play on here
Thanks for the update. Really interesting to see how this will play out.
A few thoughts: LOAM was selling down their stake slowly BEFORE the litigation settlement was announced:
8/3/22: 3.9% reduction
11/7/22: 5.5% reduction
12/20/22: 3.8% reduction
1/4/23: 4.3% reduction
1/6/23: 19.4% reduction **presumably at much higher prices as this was day of settlement announcement
1/10/23: 11.6% reduction
Maybe there is nothing to read into this at all, or I could read it one of a few ways:
They have been slowly reducing stake over the past year + to fund other investment opportunities, etc. and saw 1/6/23 as opportunistic. The first 10 days of January was a significantly more frequent and higher % reduction than their normal pace over the last year, obviously with 1/6/23 being the bulk of that. I do find it interesting that they sold more on 1/10 but have not done any further in the last week while prices have drifted downwards.
Anyway, I find it interesting - not sure what to make of it.
Thanks for your write-ups - always enjoy them.
As you indicate, the largest sell-down day was 1/6
Pretty horrible deal ultimately. Very disappointing that they raised money so recently at 37p/share and then agreed to a deal offering significantly less value. Well, on to the next one!
Twice the amount of what I thought it would be. I will eat some crow.
Actually you were bang on, the 150mUSD is split into 65mUSD for the "License agreement" (corresponding to the patents that were being litigated) and 85mUSD for "Sale agreement" (corresponding to other patents that are being sold but were not in scope)
So arguably the "real" settlement number here is 65mUSD.
Thinking the settlement is a one time $50-75M USD payment. Anything more and Samsung would likely roll the dice in court and then at the CAFC. Winning the IPRs was very helpful for Nanoco and they have world class legal representation with Mintz, Caldwell Cassady & Curry and Johnny Ward.
Conversely, why would the company agree to a 50-75mUSD payment? That doesn't make sense
There is always the risk of losing and getting $0.00. There are no slam dunks in patent litigation.
Of course, my point is that your 50-75mUSD translates into a 6-10p share price, at those levels you'd think the company would rather ""roll the dice" as you put it.
Especially when they raised money at 37p/share six months ago, and their stock options are struck at 50p+
You could very well be right. Just knowing Samsung and watching their deal flow, there are numbers they will settle for and there are numbers they will litigate through all appeals for. Winning the IPRs and Nanoco's elite level litigation counsel could have some upside to my estimates. Samsung paid out at least 4 settlements/license to close the year that I know of. I think I am going to be pretty close and hope that I am wrong. Best of luck!
Thanks. Mega disappointing not to make any money on an actual settlement being arrived at back end of Jan 2023. Added a lot on Friday as well. Going to hold until we know more, hopefully some positive updates on future licensing of the IP or plans for what to do with the settlement money that at least bring this back into the 50s/60s than where it currently sits
AssetCo also not moved which was another great looking play on here
Thanks for the update. Really interesting to see how this will play out.
A few thoughts: LOAM was selling down their stake slowly BEFORE the litigation settlement was announced:
8/3/22: 3.9% reduction
11/7/22: 5.5% reduction
12/20/22: 3.8% reduction
1/4/23: 4.3% reduction
1/6/23: 19.4% reduction **presumably at much higher prices as this was day of settlement announcement
1/10/23: 11.6% reduction
Maybe there is nothing to read into this at all, or I could read it one of a few ways:
They have been slowly reducing stake over the past year + to fund other investment opportunities, etc. and saw 1/6/23 as opportunistic. The first 10 days of January was a significantly more frequent and higher % reduction than their normal pace over the last year, obviously with 1/6/23 being the bulk of that. I do find it interesting that they sold more on 1/10 but have not done any further in the last week while prices have drifted downwards.
Anyway, I find it interesting - not sure what to make of it.
Thanks for your write-ups - always enjoy them.
As you indicate, the largest sell-down day was 1/6